the new shipbuilding market to meet the "super cycle"? This cycle is not the other cycle.

new and completed year-on-year increase of more than 20%., the world's new shipbuilding market 29.2 million CGT in January-June, up 27.6 percent year-on-year and 49 percent higher than the average number of transactions in the same period in the last five years (2019-2023). Among them, the month of June turnover 7.18 million CGT, the highest volume in a single month since the current market recovery. In terms of DWT, the world's new ship 72.56 million DWT was sold in January-June, up 39.9 percent year-on-year. In terms of completion and delivery, the world's new shipbuilding delivery 19.79 million CGT in January-June increased by 25.9 percent year-on-year, 18.3 percent higher than the recent five-year average. World Handheld Orders 0.134 billion CGT at end-June, up 3.4 per cent YoY. The data reflects that the new shipbuilding market has continued its positive momentum this year, the production capacity potential has been continuously released, and the market index for the whole year is expected to reach a new high.

oil tankers, gas carriers and bulk carriers ranked among the top three in terms of transaction share.January-June 2024, in terms of CGT, the ship-type structures sold are oil tankers (29%), gas carriers (28%), bulk carriers (19%), container ships (10%), other ships (9%) and passenger ships (5%).Main Ship Type Transaction Year-on-Year Change, gas ships, oil tankers and passenger ships maintained year-on-year growth, while bulk carriers, container ships and other ship types declined year-on-year. Orders for oil tankers continued to grow at a considerable rate, continuing to support the steady growth of the new shipbuilding market. With the continued release of orders for card gas projects and the renewal of large LNG carriers, the share of gas carrier orders such as large LNG carriers and VLAC has been relatively large this year.In addition, the passenger ship market has obviously recovered, and orders in the large cruise market have been continuously released, with a significant increase in year-on-year growth.

June 2024, the Clarkson New Shipbuilding Price Index closed at 187.23 points, up 0.4 percent month-on-month and 9.5 percent year-on-year, the highest monthly level since October 2008. Since the current round of market recovery, new shipbuilding prices have climbed from 125 points in October 2020 to 187 points in June 2024, an increase of nearly 50%. The current new shipbuilding price truly reflects the current market supply and demand relationship, and the market situation of short supply further supports the high and stable price of new shipbuilding.

2007, the global new shipbuilding market turnover reached 93 million CGT, creating the highest value in history since statistics. From 2003 to 2007 (before the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008), the market has continuously set new historical records. This round of market rise is recognized by the industry as the "super cycle" of the new shipbuilding market ".

the recovery of the new shipbuilding market, although almost everyone does not think it will reach the peak of the last super cycle, the market has climbed to new heights at a faster rate. Some signs similar to the last "super cycle" have loomed, as if to remind the industry that it is "in this mountain". Analyzing the market development environment of the two time periods (2003-2007 and 2021-present) helps to observe the current state of market development, to evoke some silent "glorious years", and to stimulate deep-rooted thinking, with a view to forming an objective understanding of the future trend of the market.

High Growth VS Low Expectations. Last Shipbuilding Cycle (2003-2007)is in a golden period of high growth in the global economy and trade, with an average growth rate of 5.1 per cent. With China's accession to the WTO in 2001, China's economy has continued to grow at a high rate, especially from 2003 to 2007, China's GDP growth has been steadily above double digits, making a huge contribution to global economic growth. In the context of high economic growth, the growth rate of world maritime trade also exceeded 5% during the same period. During this period (2003-2007), both the global economy and seaborne trade achieved high growth, creating an excellent environment for the last round of shipping and the booming new shipbuilding market. reverse viewMarket Round (2021-present), the growth rate of the global economy slowed down due to multiple factors, and expectations were weak, with the growth rate falling back to 3%. IMF, World Bank, WTO and other global research institutions predict that the global economy will enter the low-to-medium growth range in the future. The growth of seaborne trade is also lower than the average, and the growth rate remains at about 2%; although the growth trend of transportation distance is slightly better, in the long run, due to the impact of economic development, the potential for seaborne trade volume to return to high growth is limited.

financial markets vs. uncertainty is highlighted. Last Shipbuilding Cycle (2003-2007), the global financial market is in a relatively stable and expected controllable environment. In terms of the RMB exchange rate, the exchange rate remained stable before the exchange rate reform in 2005 and appreciated in the later period. During the same period, the exchange rates of major global currencies, such as the yen and the euro, also remained relatively stable compared to other periods. A stable and predictable financial environment creates a good foundation for continued investment in the new shipbuilding market. on the contrary,Cycle (2021-present)the global financial environment has changed dramatically, the exchange rates of major economies have fluctuated sharply under the background of the US dollar interest rate hike. The future trend of the US dollar has planted many uncertainties for the development of the economic and financial situation of various countries.

globalization VS the resurgence of anti-globalization. Last Shipbuilding Cycle (2003-2007)is at the end of a period of rapid globalization. From the late 1990 s to the beginning of the 21st century, the process of economic globalization has accelerated significantly, and the favorable economic and political environment has achieved development and progress in the unified markets of countries and regions in the east, west, north and south of the world, and provided a favorable environment for the healthy development of the world's new shipbuilding market. As the subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in the United States in 2008 evolved into a global financial crisis, and the internal political environment of major economies has changed in recent years, the trend of protectionism and anti-globalization has intensified.Cycle (2021-present)is already in this context, and the resulting uncertainty is far greater than the previous cycle.

shipping market earnings are at a high level.'s last shipbuilding cycle (2003-2007) and the current cycle (2021-present) was driven by the boom in the shipping market. At the beginning of the 21st century, China's accession to the WTO led to the rapid growth of global seaborne trade, and the demand for crude oil, iron ore and container capacity increased significantly, pushing freight prices in the shipping market to historical highs. The starting point of the current market cycle was also the recovery of the shipping market, with epidemics, geo-conflicts, natural disasters and other emergencies changing the structure of global trade, seriously affecting fleet efficiency and pushing up freight prices. The starting point of both cycles was as the shipping market grew, with freight prices reaching then-current highs or relative highs, favourably supporting the newbuilding market.

new shipbuilding prices are growing rapidly and continue to create new highs.newbuilding prices for the last shipbuilding cycle (2003-2007) and the current cycle (2021-present) have been very close, both at historically high levels. Take the Clarkson price index as an example. In September 2008, the shipbuilding index reached 191.21 points, the highest point on record. At the beginning of July 2024, the ship price index has reached 187.52 points again, and the two are very close. As the new shipbuilding market continues to boom, new shipbuilding prices are expected to continue to climb, reaching or even exceeding the all-time high in 2008.

shipbuilding indicators have been very close to or even beyond.if only observingCycle (2021-present)'s new order indicator, although the total amount is higher.Last Shipbuilding Cycle (2003-2007)there is still a certain distance, about 85% of the annual average at that time, but considering the current market environment, many indicators are already very similar to those at that time.one is the hand-held order scheduling close.currently, the global handheld order guarantee factor has reached 3.5 and the order delivery schedule has reached 3-4 years. Orders from major shipbuilders have begun to take orders for 2028 and beyond, similar to the previous shipbuilding cycle.second, the shipbuilding industry business climate index returned to the high business climate range.China's shipbuilding industry prosperity index (CPI) in the second quarter of 2024, released by the China Shipbuilding Association, rose to 144 points, entering the high boom range.three single-enterprise orders index has exceeded 2007.2023, 245 shipyards worldwide will receive orders, with an average of 193000 CGT orders each. This index far exceeds the average 122000 CGT of single enterprises in 2007.

shipbuilding capacity expansion vs reduced number of active shipyards. Last Shipbuilding Cycle (2003-2007)was accompanied by massive capacity expansion, with the number of shipyards worldwide increasing by 63% between 2000 and 2010, with the annual maximum completion exceeding 50 million CGT. on the contrary,Cycle (2021-present)the number of active shipyards worldwide is still decreasing, by 24% between 2021 and 2023. In addition, industry concentration has increased significantly in the current cycle, with the top 10 shipbuilding groups accounting for 66.3 per cent of new orders received in 2023, up 22.9 per cent from 2007.

Traditional ship construction VS large-scale, green ship type continued to upgrade. Last Shipbuilding Cycle (2003-2007)are mainly oil, bulk, set and other traditional ship types, the comparative advantage is more reflected in labor and cost, the industry entry threshold is relatively low.and this cycle (2021-present)has been significantly improved, the green and intelligent products, the efficient and lean management, and the maturity and stability of the production and supply chain have put forward higher requirements for shipyards. In the case of green ship orders, for example, new ship orders in 2023, including the use of alternative fuels and reserved capacity, accounted for 50.2 per cent of the total annual volume (capacity); orders using one or more marine energy-saving technologies were close to 30 per cent. The upgrading of product performance and production mode has virtually improved the overall technical level of the industry, which requires enterprises to have stronger comprehensive strength.

new shipbuilding market has entered a new cycle. As we analyzed at the beginning of the year (2024, the key year for the shipbuilding industry to consolidate its advantages and recast its glory), the market fundamentals are positive and have the objective potential for medium and long-term stable development. We are also optimistic that the industry will continue to consolidate its advantages and achieve greater results. However, in the face of the ever-accumulating uncertainties, especially the macro risks that can affect the overall situation, even if the market continues to be hot and the future prospects are promising, it is still necessary to remind the industry to be keenly aware of market changes and make risk predictions in advance to prevent problems before they occur.

is called a cyclical industry, the new shipbuilding market is bound to rise, fall and adjust. If there is no God's perspective to trace back to the development of the last cycle, it is difficult for anyone to predict that the subprime mortgage crisis originating in the United States in 2008 will sweep the world and affect the then soaring newbuilding market. Looking at the current cycle, the external environment is more complex and changeable, and there are many political, financial and other uncertain factors that can affect the global macro situation. We can not rule out the possibility that the market will continue to improve and disrupt the normal operation of enterprises, such as the intensification of financial market volatility, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and the acceleration of trade protectionism.

the development of the world's shipbuilding industry has entered a new stage, major shipbuilding countries have focused on the two major directions of green and intelligent transformation, accelerating technological innovation and commercialization practices, and striving to take the lead in future development. Under the new situation, to give full play to the comparative advantages of the shipbuilding industry, it is more necessary to quickly form new quality productivity, strengthen the guidance of technological innovation, enhance the resilience of the industrial chain supply chain, change the production mode, and release the development potential. Aiming at the practical problems that restrict the improvement of productivity, we should further promote reform, improve the efficiency of the industry and improve the quality of development.

the basic logic of the operation of the global shipbuilding industry, especially the civil shipbuilding and offshore industry, has not changed in essence, that is, the characteristics of order system, long chain and internationalization. Orders come from downstream shipping, energy and other industries, and need to follow international market rules, international technical standards and international ecological cooperation. 90% of the orders of the shipbuilding industry come from the international, the shipbuilding industry cluster with the integration of domestic and foreign brands has gradually formed, and the number of international maritime standards and rules jointly proposed by many countries is increasing. Facing the new opportunities and challenges of the global maritime industry, it is necessary for the industry to deepen communication and exchanges with relevant stakeholders at home and abroad, strengthen collaboration and cooperation, and build an environment that is in line with the sustainable development of the global maritime industry.

"cannot step into the same river twice", although this round of world newbuilding market cycle has similarities with the past historical cycle, it has more incorporated new changes and shown new characteristics and risks. Just as the message was sent at the beginning of the year, in 2024, China's shipbuilding industry will consolidate its advantages, seek progress while maintaining stability, and create greater glories. More than half of the year, the whole industry has made extraordinary achievements, laying a solid foundation for achieving greater goals throughout the year. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the focus of the shipbuilding industry is to eliminate interference with sound operation and expand the overall progress of advantages. It is necessary to strengthen the analysis and judgment of the external environment, adhere to rational development, focus on solving the shortcomings of the industry, do a good job in market prediction and risk prevention and control, and steadily improve the ability and efficiency of high-quality realization.

In addition to the source indicated separately, the data in this paper are from the China Shipping Association, Clarkson, VesselsValue, related companies official release and other statistical and information channels.